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    STUDIA POLITICA - Issue no. 1 / 1997-1998  
         
  Article:   TELEPHONE OPINION POLLING IN PREDICTING ELECTION / SONDAJE DE OPINIE TELEFONICE ÎN PREDICŢIA ELECTORALĂ.

Authors:  GABRIEL BĂDESCU.
 
       
         
  Abstract:  Because of low proportion of the Romanian population that has telephone, less than half, phone surveys have generally been considered of little value in election forecasting. We have presented methods of using samples of the population that has phone in order to generalise results for the entire population. We have argued that even if prediction does not necessarily require explanation, a good explanatory model enhances the quality of prediction. Data we have used are from a city level survey, from the 1996 local elections, and from a national survey, conducted in March 1997. Our findings may suggest that phone surveys not only may be viable alternatives to face-to-face surveys but may actually be superior to them under some conditions.  
         
     
         
         
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