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Authors: VLAD TOMUS, EMANUEL-EMIL SĂVAN.
DOI: 10.24193/subbnegotia.2020.2.04
Published Online: 2020-06-30
Published Print: 2020-06-30
pp. 69-92
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This paper proposes a solution to the fundamental problem of maximizing productivity by reducing the costs in a small sized manufacturing company. The steps taken in tackling this commonly faced issue are prompted by the review of existing literature on Lean and Just in Time manufacturing, some of the concepts being first introduced at Toyota in the 20th century. The approached case study is based on a small manufacturing company of P.V.C. related products. Both qualitative and quantitative aspects are taken into account when analysing the implementation of the proposed management process e.g. number of employees directly involved in the manufacturing process, relationship with suppliers, sales, inventories, incomes, expenses (up to 60 months of historic data). For providing an insight into expected future sales, this paper conducts a detailed time series analysis. In developing the forecasting model, three smoothing methods have been tested: simple moving average, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and exponential smoothing. Also, different regression models have been considered e.g. simple linear and polynomial. Simple linear regression was considered to provide the best balance between model complexity and the accuracy of the predictions.
Keywords: lean, just-in-time, time series analysis, forecasting, simple moving average (SMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), exponential smoothing
JEL Classification: C22
